Veepstakes – How to Choose

Choosing a Vice Presidential candidate is one of the trickier parts of running for president. It is also a problem every candidate would love to have. There is a lot of disagreement amongst the chattering classes, and frankly amongst my friends, about what makes a good vice presidential pick. I personally believe that the right choice is usually different for each candidate, and can also depend in part on who the other party nominates. So, instead of having a general post on what makes a good vice presidential pick, I am going to say who, if I was master of each campaign, whom I would pick. Let’s start with the most natural candidate for me to cover: Mitt Romney.

I tend to look at the strengths of each candidate as much, if not more, in determining who I think would make a good vice president. Especially if Romney is not able to make this upcoming election a referendum on the Democratic nominee, he is going to have to pick a running mate who accentuates his positive attributes. Romney, if he is smart, will do everything he can to run as the competent voice of pragmatic solutions and phenomenal business sense; if everyone in America doesn’t know he saved the Olympics by the end of his campaign, he will have erred along the way. He’ll also have to separate himself from Washington and President Bush, so he can’t automatically be tied to the unpopular administration.

Romney, as a one-term governor, will be weak on national defense and foreign affairs, which will be more damaging if he is running against Clinton. Also, even though both Clinton and Obama are going to scare social conservatives, the religious right is still going to have a hard time rallying around a Mormon at levels necessary to combat the desire on the left to win. Also, all of the other major GOP candidates are out, since it has become increasingly clear that they all hate Romney.

So, we’re looking for a social conservative from outside of Washington who has strong national defense and foreign affairs bona fides. Initially, these factors would indicate that a general would be ideal, but they typically make poor candidates and I’m not sure who that would be. Any ideas?

Bedard and the M’s Future

It was a tossup between posting about the Mariners’ potential blockbuster deal and the presidential race, but since the Bedard deal could happen any minute, or not at all, expediency demands that baseball will be my first topic.

The Mariners have nearly made a deal that would send prospects Adam Jones and pitcher Chris Tillman, plus reliever George Sherrill, to the Baltimore Orioles for ace starting pitcher Erik Bedard. The rationale for the deal is obvious: put Bedard and Felix Hernandez at the top of the starting rotation, and the Mariners will have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. I agree that getting Bedard puts the Mariners in the top six rotations (Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, LA Angels, Cleveland). Listing those five teams, a number of issues come to mind:

1. Four of those teams are in the American League.

2. The Yankees and Tigers are not on that list, probably the two best offenses in baseball.

3. Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels all scored more runs than the Mariners last season.

4. Part of making the Bedard deal is replacing Jose Guillen’s production not with Adam Jones, but with Brad Wilkerson or some other retread.

5. Not only does the Mariner offense get worse, but so does the outfield defense. By a lot.

6. The Mariners are getting a star for two years on the fairly cheap, and giving up a potential star with six years on the much cheaper.

Part of being a good general manager is rationally assessing the potential of your team. This characteristic, more than any other, is why Billy Beane had so much success from 2000-2006. With Bedard, the Mariners are better this year than they were last year, but by how much? Is that Seattle team really good enough to compete with the Angels? Adam Jones is about as surefire a prospect as the Mariners have had since A-Rod, and to give him up in a now-or-never deal with this team just doesn’t make enough sense. If things break right, especially some Angel injuries, it could look like a genius move. Hope, though, is unfortunately not a strategy.

New Year’s Resolution

All,

One of those pesky New Year’s Resolutions was to restart my blog, and try to gain some momentum by posting regularly. This quarter has been busy so far, but I think I have found the time (mostly, during classes) to post fairly regularly. For those who know me, you will not be shocked by the content. However, being the bleeding heart that I am, I appreciate diversity, so let me know if you are interested in a topic not related to politics or sports. For example, there will be an Oscar post shortly! I just need to see No Country for Old Men and Atonement… well, at least I need to see No Country.

Let the blog resume!

Steve J.