Caucus Day: Hey, Mr. Tally Man!

Last year, my mother thought that it would be interesting to become our local voting precinct chair (PCO). One of the PCO’s duties is to run the primary caucus in a presidential election year. Oh, what a fun activity that will be!

Unbeknownst to my mother, though, was that the caucus would end up being very important, and since it was really important, a ton of people showed up to caucus. Our caucus site was at a middle school, along with over 20 other precincts. Our classroom had 40 chairs, most likely because less than 40 people showed up to caucus in 2004. This time, 77 people showed up to caucus in our precinct, and we had, by my father’s estimate, over 1500 people show up to caucus.

The massive turnout affected signing up, and actually kept some people from caucusing. Under Washington rules, someone can sign-in and state their candidate preference on the sign-in sheet (as everyone does), and then leave. However, all of the precinct sign-in sheets were placed at the front of the auditorium, and the line stretched outside of the school, eventually overwhelming the process and making it so people would have to wait until the sign-in sheets made their way to the individual precincts.

Mom as PCO meant that Dad and Jr. (me) got to “volunteer” to help out with the caucus. Dad was Mom’s point-man while she made sure those who needed to registered to vote. I got to set up the precinct room, and make the futile attempt to set up the room in such a way that everyone who wanted to sit could. I was also designated, because I was good at math until 8th grade, to be the vote counter.

At 1:45, people made their way to our classroom. Some people sat down, and while others signed in, Mom began reading the rules of the caucus. Question from the gallery. Mom continues to read the rules. Another question from the gallery. Someone else from the gallery answers the question. Mom continues, someone from the gallery asks if we have jumped ahead of ourselves, someone else from the gallery agrees, someone else disagrees, Mom continues with the reading of the rules. Mom gets lost in the rules, which are absurdly complicated and poorly written, three people from the gallery chime in with their advice. Then we had speakers, and people objected to the rules that one person could speak for each side. We vote to have more speakers, figure out who the speakers are, and then vote on the order of the speakers. This was the general tenor of the event, and at some point I began wishing I we could just be good Republicans and follow orders.

Before the speeches, I had done the initial tally: Obama 48, Clinton 24, Uncommitted 5.  Someone gave me their Blackberry to calculate the results, but I hit a wrong button and the screen I needed went away.  Since there was no calculator available, I got to improv a tutorial for my cell phone calculator, which almost failed (“How in the hell do I do a decimal point?”).  Also, originally, Dad had been the outlier in the family, being for Hillary while the rest of us were for Barack.  Well, I talked to my parents on Thursday, and Mom had begun to waiver, and was saying that her dream ticket may be Clinton/Obama, with each getting eight years in office.  Well, the family split, with the children for Obama and the parents for Hillary (or, as Dad justifies his vote, “Billary”).  After the speeches, three uncommitted, all young, came over to Obama.  Final tally: Obama 51, Clinton 24, Uncomitted 2.  Our six delegates, therefore, got broken up as four for Obama and two for Clinton.

We were able to get our final vote at 2:30, an hour-and-a-half after the doors opened.  Then, it was time to elect delegates.  Usually, people can leave, but most people (I think because they didn’t think they had a choice), stuck around to vote for the delegates.  We used post-it notes and scraps of paper, with the Obama supporters voting for four people, and Clinton supporters voting for two.  I ran as an alternate, not feeling right about trying to taking away a delegate position from a fervent, consistent supporter.  My parents ended up being the delegates for Clinton.

Romney Out

My sources (i.e., some websites I read) tell me that Mitt Romney is planning on dropping out of the race today in a speech before CPAC (Cabal of Punchy, Angry Conservatives?).

This is the right move. Mathematically, it is nearly impossible for Romney to catch McCain, in large part due to most of the remaining states dividing up their delegates proportionally. There are also several people suggesting that Romney get out now so he can save face, and a lot of his own money, and give it another go in 2012.

I have been saying for months that an Obama-Romney race was the most likely, and this development is still stunning to me. The responses I would often get would either include Rudy Giuliani’s lead in the polls, or McCain’s popularity with moderates and his name recognition, as reasons I was wrong. I always replied, “Watch Fox News, and tell me who the establishment is supporting,” being sure that the establishment would win the day.

I was wrong. Now, there is a ton of pressure on McCain coming from the same establishment to placate the right, make amends, and unite the party. If I were McCain, I would buck the party establishment and spirit on as a moderate voice. The Republican Party is in the midst of a massive power struggle with little regard to whether they will win in 2008. Already, Ann Coulter and Glenn Beck have come out and stated they will vote for Hillary Clinton over John McCain because they believe that the Republicans need to “find their soul,” as Glenn Beck said last night on Anderson Cooper. McCain apparently is not the soul, but instead the rebellious child who often holds hands with the other family when the Dems and Reps play Red Rover at the neighborhood picnic. The conservative establishment is offering McCain this “advice” not to increase the chances that the GOP will retain the White House, but to reassert their power over the party after their chosen candidate failed. McCain should do himself a favor and ignore it.

Clinton $$$, Consistency Issues

Three posts in one day?  Don’t count on this being a pattern, but I felt the following deserved a post.

In the face of a growing gap in fundraising, Hillary Clinton recently loaned her campaign $5 million.  Other than the obvious indication that her campaign is facing financial difficulties (some members of Clinton’s campaign staff are temporarily going unpaid), why is this important?

Bill Clinton in Iowa last month:

“We are very frustrated because we have a Supreme Court that seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us… For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary’s campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform.”

My quick analysis is that an explanation from the Clinton camp would include a variation of “we operate within the rules as they are, not as we wish they were.”  However, a quote like this feeds the narrative that the Clintons will sacrifice their ideals if it helps them get elected.  It also could give the story regarding the loan, and Clinton’s financial difficulties in general, some additional legs.

Thanks to Chauncey for the heads up.

Veepstakes – Clarification

I have a couple of comments either throwing out their own names, or demanding one from me.  Right now, I’m just trying to figure out what characteristics each candidate should consider when determining their choice of running mate.  If you have an idea for who that should be, by all means throw it out there.  Hopefully, over the next couple of weeks, I’ll get closer to narrowing the field to who I think each candidate should pick.  At the same time, you can probably tell that I don’t think picking Huckabee would particularly help McCain, or that Condi Rice would be a wise choice for Romney.  Down the road I will be predicting who I think the candidates will choose, once the nominees are set.  Until then, please comment with candidates and/or your own criteria for picking a running mate.

Super Tuesday: Kissing Sisters and Talking Straight

First, a quick breakdown of who won what last night (just in case you haven’t found it anywhere else):

Obama: Connecticut, Delaware, Colorado, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Kansas

Clinton: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, California

New Mexico is still undecided. With 181 out of 184 precincts reporting, Clinton leads Obama by 117 votes. There are over 16,000 provisional ballots, so we may not know today who won.

Obama and Clinton essentially tied last night. Obama won more states, and the delegate count is fairly even (NBC News projects 840 delegates for Obama, 830 for Clinton). He is clearly still in this race, and may even have the slight upper hand. However, Clinton took the big prize last night of California. If she had taken Missouri, I think you could have given a slight win to Clinton. A tie, however, should favor Obama, and we’ll go over why Obama should like his position shortly.

McCain: Missouri, California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Oklahoma, Delaware, Illinois

Huckabee: Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee

Romney: Massachusetts, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Utah, Alaska, Colorado

Romney needed a couple of things to happen last night in order to support his rationale that he is the one guy who can beat McCain. First, he had to keep California close, if not win. McCain picked up a solid win in California (42% to 34%), thereby cementing his status as frontrunner. Second, he needed Huckabee to fizzle out in the south. Huckabee came within 8,677 votes in Missouri of sweeping all southern and southernish states. Huckabee can now assert strong regional power throughout the Bible belt. Meanwhile, where is Romney’s base of support? The upper interior west and midwest? A look at his wins shows two states he lived in (Utah, Massachusetts), two other states with strong Mormon support (Colorado – ninth highest overall Mormon population, Montana – sixth highest percentage of Mormons), two states with no people (Alaska, North Dakota), and Minnesota. It would be interesting to see how Romney would do in places like Washington, Oregon, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin, but I don’t think we’re going to get there. At this point it is clear that he can’t beat McCain, so it might be time to get out. A couple of pundits last night brought up the dignity factor, that Romney should try to save face at this point, which only makes sense to me if he is angling for another run down the road.

Huckabee, however, has nothing to lose. He has gotten this far raising little and spending less, so he has no reason to worry about sacrificing a significant amount of his own money or going deep into the red in order to keep his campaign going. In fact, the longer he stays in, the more likely the GOP nomination becomes a two-person race, and then we really get to see whether conservatives will go en masse to McCain. Huckabee’s trouble is that he is running out of southern states. The next round of primaries and caucuses is this Saturday, with Kansas, Louisiana and Washington for the Republicans, followed on Tuesday by DC, Maryland, and Virginia. That’s just not enough southern power to keep McCain from capturing the nomination. If Romney drops out, then that might throw Kansas and potentially Maryland (which still has some southern elements) into question. Essentially, Huckabee’s strategy should boil down to staying in as long as he can, get social conservatives to flock his way, and hope for either a miracle or enough support where he become the favorite for McCain’s running mate.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Louisiana, Washington, and Nebraska are on deck, also taking place on Saturday. Obama has only lost one caucus state (Nevada), and Washington and Nebraska both have caucuses. Obama should also do well in Louisiana, as he has in every deep south state. If Obama pulls off the sweep on February 9, then he has another caucus state the next day (apparently the residents of Maine don’t go to church). Then comes February 12, with DC, Maryland, and Virginia, all of which will be holding primaries. DC should strongly favor Obama due to the overwhelming African-American population, but I’m not sure yet about Maryland and Virginia. I will attempt to track down some polling data when I can and get back to you. The setup, though, clearly favors Obama, and he could pick up some serious, and perhaps unstoppable, momentum over the next week.

Final thoughts on the evening, from A Daily Show:

Ted Kennedy = Unknown retired lesbian gym teacher

Veepstakes Part II – McCain

(I’m trying to take care of the Republicans first, because I think that the race could very well be decided by Wednesday)

McCain’s candidacy has taken on a completely different form than Romney’s. McCain, despite the number of endorsements, is still seen as anti-establishment, in large part because of the animosity towards him from evangelicals (James Dobson, leader of Focus on the Family, continues to state he will never vote for McCain), talk radio (Limbaugh has called a McCain victory the end of the Republican party), and economic conservatives (just Google “George Will” and “McCain”). Also, although it hasn’t really been talked about, watch Fox News and how they cover both Romney and McCain, then tell me which candidate is the GOP favorite.

So, the thinking goes, McCain needs to get an establishment conservative who can cover his weak spots on campaign finance, tax cuts, gay marriage, environmental protection, etc. There are two other weaknesses McCain is going to need to cover, though, that deserve a closer look:

Management style/experience: Ohio GOP Senator George Voinovich just ripped his colleague over this issue. McCain has been in the Senate for most of his career, but the real issues were at the forefront during the summer of 2007. If McCain starts to lose control of his staff during an incredibly rigorous general election campaign, whether he is capable of being the type of manager necessary will come up again.

Age: A lot of pundits have talked about a McCain/Obama race as a clear contrast, in large part because of the age gap. Even if McCain’s opponent in Clinton, though, I believe age will be a major, major issue come November. McCain will be 72 years-old in 2009, and the fact is, at that age, stuff happens. It is unfortunate, but at McCain’s age (even with a healthy, 95 year-old mother still kicking) the fitness of his vice presidential pick to be president himself will be at the forefront.

I don’t buy that McCain’s VP pick has to be from “outside Washington,” in large part because McCain has bucked partisanship so many times. In fact, getting a recognizable name may benefit McCain, as long as the Republican base is more comfortable with him. It can’t seem like too much of a pander, though, since the rationale for McCain will be in part that he is his own man, not bound by the constraints of partisanship that have gridlocked Washington for decades. More on who this will be later, although if you know any names, post a comment.

Wow

That’s why they play the game.

That’s also why I shouldn’t pick pro football games.

Super Bowl XLII

Patriots 35, Giants 24.

I have heard a lot of talk about how the Giants are this supposed “team of destiny” after beating three teams on the road to get to the Super Bowl. I will take 18 straight wins over three every time when determining which team has “destiny” on its side. A few other points:

1. The Giants were only able to put up 24, 21, and 20 points in regulation against their three NFC opponents. All those opponents gave the Giants at least two more possessions to score than the Patriots will on Sunday.

2. It is pretty clear that the Giants will be double-covering Randy Moss, and force Wes Welker to beat them. Won’t the Patriots do the same to the Giants? Double-cover Plaxico Burress and force Amani Toomer to beat them in the passing game? I’ll take Brady to Welker over Manning to Toomer.

3. This is the first playoff game where the running game is not the primary strength for the Patriots’ opponent. In an attempt to find a weakness, I discovered that the Patriots were 10th in the league against the run, even though they were blowing many of their opponents out by halftime. Both Jacksonville and San Diego relied more on the run than the pass, and were able to keep the games fairly close. Let’s see what happens with a team that relies much more on the pass.

4. The strength of the Giants defense is their pass rush, leading the league with 53 sacks. The Patriots gave up only 21 sacks all season. This is where the Giants are going to have to beat the Patriots if they are going to win.

I still don’t think it will be a blowout, primarily because the Patriots have had to win their three other Super Bowls by three points each. A blowout won’t surprise me. A Giants win will shock me.

5. I picked the Bears to win last year.