Nana and the Superdelegates

No, this is not the name of my neo-retro bubblegum pop band.

I was in QFC on Friday, buying Lean Cuisine TV dinners and Vitamin Water (the two essentials of my diet during my second year of law school), when I got a call from my grandmother, known in my family as simply “Nana.” Nana, an Obama-turned-Hillary-turned-Obama supporter (she’s a little fickle), was very concerned about these “superdelegates” and wanted to know what they were all about. After two minutes of explaining what they were to the best of my ability, Nana was none-too-pleased. We went back and forth for the next ten minutes, agreeing with each other that the superdelegates were undemocratic and unfair to those who voted in the primaries and caucuses. We ended the conversation with Nana frustrated with her Democrats (she believes Republicans are evil), and I was lost in QFC (also known as “in the produce section”).

The conversation got me thinking: what if Hillary won? At this point in the race, what would be the consequences of a Clinton victory in the Democratic primary? After a fair amount of consideration, I have concluded that a Clinton victory would be borderline catastrophic for the party.

Let’s first look at how Clinton would get the nomination. At this point, she will not catch Obama in pledged delegates. That means going into the convention, Obama will be ahead on delegates decided by the voters. Therefore, Clinton will have to rely on superdelegates and/or some pledged delegates switching in order for her to get the nomination. If, and this is a huge if, Clinton has managed to capture the popular vote, then this scenario will be difficult for the party, but not incredibly damaging. If Obama goes into the convention with the popular vote and pledged delegate lead, lookout. To delve deeper into the problems, both in the short-term and long-term, let’s take a look at the constituencies that will end up as the losers in a Clinton victory.

African-Americans. Black voters have a disenfranchisement complex to begin with, and rightly so (see: Florida, Ohio, and the first 230 years of U.S. history). Ever since the Civil Rights Act and the Southern Strategy, African-Americans have been the most reliable constituency for either party in terms of percentage. Now, try telling black voters that the party they have supported for the last 40+ years is going to take the first black candidate to reach the precipice of a major party nomination, who has more votes and more delegates than the white candidate, and a bunch of party insiders are going to go against the majority of voters and nominate the white candidate. I’m sure that will go over real well.

Young voters. Many Obama supporters, and far more than for Clinton, have voted for the first time this Democratic primary. After Robert Kennedy’s assassination and the 1968 Democratic Convention, Eugene McCarthy failed to capture the nomination despite strong support from college students, the country watched as a whole generation of liberals largely checked out from politics, and an era of conservatism was born. Introducing young voters to a process where a handful of power-brokers are able to nominate a candidate other than their own, and counter to the pledged delegate and popular vote counts, could be equally as damaging. Especially when Democrats seem on the cusp of a new, persistent majority.

Nana. I know Hillary dominates the wise-woman vote. Nana, though, embodies another constituency altogether, those who are more aligned with what the Democratic Party stands for than a particular candidate. For Nana, superdelegates seem like something the Republicans would do, a top-down, hierarchical system where the will of the masses doesn’t matter in comparison to the will of the powerful and influential. This constituency is equally at risk of becoming disillusioned by a process where party insiders overrule a majority of voters and pledged delegates, and will simply not vote in November.

Democrats need African-Americans, the young, and Nana, both in November and beyond. They would be well-advised to ensure that these constituencies are protected, not dismissed.