For those who don’t know, I have taken this New Year’s resolution farther than I originally anticipated. Instead of posting on just one blog, I have been posting on two! Along with a college buddy of mine, we started “The Sweet Onion Fantasy Report” which primarily examines fantasy sports (our tagline is “Peeling back the layers of conventional analysis to make sure this season doesn’t bring tears to your eyes). I’m using this post as a plug for the site, and to give you an example of the content. Below are two posts of mine, one about the upcoming NCAA basketball tournament, and one about a young Los Angeles Dodger outfielder that has caused much consternation amongst fantasy baseball players. Enjoy (or skip, if it’s not your thing)!
Bubble Guide
March 12, 2008
I wanted to take a step back from baseball, in part because I am still decompressing from my latest draft, and give you a quick guide to the NCAA Tournament bubble. Joe Lunardi on ESPN.com does a pretty good job of giving a breakdown of each team’s chances to make the tournament, so I will give a more general overview of what factors to look at to determine whether your team will make the Big Dance.
Taking on Goliath
The more good teams that you have beat, the better your chances of making it off the bubble. These wins are separated into two categories: Wins against the RPI Top 25 and against the RPI Top 50. Three wins in the latter is almost a must for a BCS conference school, and getting near a .500 record in these games is also a bonus. Multiple wins against the Top 25 won’t guarantee a ticket to the Dance, but it is usually a point for a bubble teams that most other bubble teams won’t have.
Strength Away from Home
The NCAAs take place at neutral sites, and the Committee prefers teams that have shown they can succeed away from home against quality competition. Teams that rely almost exclusively on what it did on its home floor to make its case will often lose out to teams that maybe did a little less, but did more on the road.
Polls
They don’t matter. Ignore, ignore, ignore.
RPI
The RPI matters a lot less than people think, in large part because there a still a lot of kinks to work out of the system. Arizona State has an RPI in the 70s right now, and is squarely on the bubble. Missouri State had an RPI of 21 a few years ago, and didn’t make it.
Head-to-Head
If two bubble teams are vying for one of the last spots, if one team dominated the head-to-head matchups, or won the last matchup decisively (or on a neutral floor in a conference tournament), that could very well be the tiebreaker. “We beat them by 30, and they only beat us by two in double-overtime,” however, will not matter.
Conference Records
How a team fairs in its conference matters more than people give it credit. The Committee looks at how teams have done later in the season, and conference records are usually based on the back half of a team’s schedule. However, this applies primarily to teams in the Top 10 conferences. Davidson, which went 22-0 in its conference this season, was still on the bubble until it received the Southern Conference’s automatic bid. Kentucky, meanwhile, has basically overcome a disastrous non-conference schedule with a 12-4 SEC record.
Conference Tournaments
By far, the most important games for the Committee when it comes to determining both entry to the Dance and seeding. Neutral floor, high-powered teams, bubble foes, conference records – conference tourneys have it all. Lose early, and seemingly safe teams may find themselves in the NIT. Make it to the championship, and a seemingly poor profile might all of a sudden just enough.
Will your team make the cut? Ask us.
Player Analysis: Matt Kemp
February 26, 2008
Will, I am treating your question as an opportunity to “answer” why Matt Kemp is rated so high, or low, depending on your point of view.
A little background is in order here. I have done four mock drafts so far, and Kemp has hung around well past the 66th pick in all of them. Then, today I looked at the mock draft done by experts for ESPN.com, and Kemp goes 51st. So, ESPN.com seems to be rating Kemp significantly higher than the general public.
One of the reasons Kemp’s value has climbed this year is because he is actually going to play full-time. Last year, AARP member Luis Gonzalez patrolled the outfield along with Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre. The Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to play centerfield, pushing Pierre into a battle with Ethier over the leftfielder job. Kemp, by all accounts, has rightfielder sewn up, and should get more than the 292 AB he got last year.
A quick look at Kemp’s stats raise two red flags. First, Kemp only walked 16 times and struck out 66 times. The strikeout rate is not bad, but when compared to his walk rate it is awful. Last season, 280 players had at least 300 PA. Kemp finished 248th in BB/PA, and 266th in BB/K. Basically, his plate discipline is horrible.
Second, Kemp had 100 hits last season. For a guy who is 6′2″, 230 lbs., you would think that he would have a ton of power. However, 73 of those hits were singles. So, he may have gotten inordinately lucky last year.
So, is Kemp headed for a significant slide in 2008? Well, first, let’s take a closer look at the first red flag, his plate discipline. Kemp actually showed great improvement in his K% between 2006 and 2007. If he is able to further cut down on his strikeouts, he will just be a guy who puts the ball in play almost all the time. Looking at his K% in the minors, improvement is very possible. If that K% holds, or goes up, without the BB% improving, be on notice that a sophomore slump could be coming.
What about Kemp getting lucky when he puts the ball in play? Actually, Kemp has had a knack for hitting it where they ain’t for the last two years. Kemp’s BABIP has been over .370 in the minors the last two years, regardless of the level he’s played. Therefore, while I expect a regression from the insane .417 he hit last season, his BABIP should still be very high. His line drive % should also go up from 17.9% last year.
Kemp’s value will be higher in leagues where AVG is a category instead of OBP, but he should remain an asset in both. At least this season he should still be largely a singles hitter. However, with his job safe, a .310/20/85 year with 15 SBs is definitely not out of the question.
So, where does a .310/20/85 season put Kemp amongst the other outfielders? In a single season league, ESPN.com has Kemp 19th:
16. Bobby Abreu 17. Manny Ramirez 18. Torii Hunter 19. Matt Kemp 20. Hunter Pence 21. Corey Hart 22. Adam Dunn
I think this is fair, although I personally think Hunter is a huge risk to take at that point in the draft. However, looking beyond Kemp, we see three outfielders who have virtually the same value. Once you get past Alex Rios at 15, the value of the following outfielders is very similar. Therefore, I wouldn’t use a sixth round pick on Kemp, which is what you would have to use to get him at 66.
The keeper league analysis is different. At 23, Kemp has a long career ahead of him, and he could challenge for batting titles while hitting 30 HR and getting 20 SB. Is that his ceiling? Maybe, but it would not be too much to expect Kemp to turn into a top 12 outfield in two years. You could do much worse with a fourth or fifth round pick.
