Here is the obscenely long MLB Preview, as promised. Today and tomorrow, the AL will come out in drips. The NL will come later in the week, most likely Thursday. Quick note: X-factor is the somewhat unheralded player that I believe needs to perform well for his team to reach its potential.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Last Year: 94-68 This Year: 88-74
Key Addition: OF Torii Hunter Key Loss: Orlando Cabrera
Starters: C Mike Napoli, 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Howie Kendrick, 3B Chone Figgins, SS Maicer Izturis, OF Garret Anderson, OF Torii Hunter, OF Vladimir Guerrero, DH Gary Matthews, Jr.
Top Pitchers: SP John Lackey, SP Jered Weaver, SP Joe Saunders, SP Jon Garland, SP Ervin Santana, CL Francisco Rodriguez, RP Scot Shields, RP Darren Oliver
X-factor: Kendrick
This prediction is with the understanding that SP John Lackey will be out for roughly a month, while SP Kelvim Escobar is done for the season. The fact that the Angels’ top two pitchers are already on the shelf, and possible out for significant amounts of time, raised a huge red flag about their prospects this season. Shields is also hurt right now, Anderson has a history of getting banged up, and Guerrero runs like my dad. In other words, if the breaks go the wrong way, it could be a long season of heartbreak in Anaheim. The Angels have also picked up the bad habit of overpaying outfielders in their 30s coming off of contract years where they performed… above expectations (see: Hunter, Matthews, Jr). However, the offense remains potent, and Kendrick seems about ready to explode. The Angels also have a deep bench, and should be able to withstand injuries to the role players in their lineup. I don’t like the Angels that much, but just enough to make it through the season as division champs.
2. Seattle Mariners Last Year: 88-74 This Year: 86-76
Key Addition: SP Erik Bedard Key Loss: OF Jose Guillen
Starters: C Kenji Johjima, 1B Richie Sexson, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Raul Ibanez, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Brad Wilkerson, DH Jose Vidro.
Top Pitchers: SP Erik Bedard, SP Felix Herndandez, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, CL J.J. Putz, RP Eric O’Flaherty, RP Sean Green, RP Mark Lowe.
X-factor: O’Flaherty
Bill Bavasi has staked his job on Bedard, Wilkerson, Silva, Sexson, Vidro, the bullpen sans RP George Sherrill, etc., etc. The GM of the M’s has overhauled the roster largely through free agency and trades to bring in veterans and the price of the future. If Bedard is merely decent, or gets hurt, there is no way the Mariners are able to capture the division, and giving up stud OF Adam Jones and Sherrill and pitching prospects for him will be a waste. The M’s must win now. A look at their lineup, however, shows major holes. There is little power in the middle as Sexson continues his end-of-career slide, which may culminate in the first baseman getting cut before the trade deadline. The outfield is also poor defensively, and there is little speed outside of Ichiro. I believe that, once the Reds fall out of contention, OF Ken Griffey, Jr. will be on the block, and will want to come back to Seattle. If healthy, it may be the move that gets the M’s from an anemic offense to an average one that could combine with their strong starting pitching and top end of the bullpen to win a weak division.
3. Oakland Athletics Last Year: 76-86 This Year: 80-82
Key Addition: RP Keith Foulke Key Losses: SP Dan Haren, OF Nick Swisher
Starters: C Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B Mark Ellis, 3B Eric Chavez, SS Bobby Crosby, OF Jack Cust, OF Emil Brown, OF Travis Buck, DH Mike Sweeney
Top Pitchers: SP Joe Blanton, SP Rich Harden, SP Justin Duchscherer, SP Lenny DiNardo, SP Dana Eveland, CL Huston Street, RP Keith Foulke, RP Alan Embree
X-factor: Crosby
Come on, Steve. Oakland was ten games under .500 last season, and they just traded away their best starting pitcher and their best hitter. How are they better this season? First, there is no way the A’s are as injured as they were last year. Oakland only had four hitters qualify for the batting title, and only six played in 100 games. Chavez and Crosby missed 141 games between them. Harden was also living on the DL in 2007, pitching in only seven games, starting four. If Harden starts at least 20 games and the A’s are able to run the same starting lineup out on the field for 100 games, this could be a dangerous team. Barton is the real deal, and others like Buck and Cust are power guys who should become quality hitters soon (Buck hit 39 doubles in 84 minor league games in 2006). Oakland, mark my words, is one year and some health away from becoming a major force in the West, and two years from challenging for the pennant. All hail Billy Beane.
4. Texas Rangers Last Year: 75-87 This Year: 71-91
Key Addition: OF Josh Hamilton Key Loss: Akinori Otsuka
Starters: C Gerald Laird, 1B Ben Broussard, 2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Hank Blalock, SS Michael Young, OF Marlon Byrd, OF Josh Hamilton, OF Milton Bradley, DH Frank Catalanato
Top Pitchers: SP Kevin Millwood, SP Vicente Padilla, SP Jason Jennings, SP Kason Gabbard, SP Luis Mendoza, CL C.J. Wilson, RP Joaquin Benoit, RP Eddie Guardado
X-factor: 3B Hank Blalock
Texas gave up the third most runs in the American League last season, and addressed their clear pitching need by… trading away one of their top pitching prospects for Hamilton. Hamilton may be one of the ten most talented hitters on the planet, and if he can stay healthy will be a superstar, but it was still an odd trade for the Rangers. Also, “key losses” is misleading because Texas dumped a number of players at the trade deadline last season, including 1B Mark Teixeira. For Teixeira, the Rangers received C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who will start the season in AAA despite vying for the starting catcher position against Laird. Further complicating matters for Texas is their porous infield defense, especially if Blalock goes down again, and a pitching staff that will desperately need strong gloves behind it will go wanting. Texas will continue to score, and if Blalock is able to return to form this will be one of the most potent offenses in baseball. I just don’t see how Texas is going to keep other teams from unloading on their undermanned rotation.
