Veepstakes – The Experience Question

Man, I love Joe Biden: Biden calls Bush comments ‘bulls**t’.  Thanks to Collin for the link.

If you are new to this blog (thank you Fox News – something I never thought I would say), you may not know the extent of my fanhood when it comes to Joe Biden.  I supported him for President, and some of my student loan money made its way to his campaign fund.  I downloaded as many web videos from CSpan and Charlie Rose, and podcasts and from Sunday morning shows, Bill Maher, etc. that I could.  I even spent part of my winter vacation volunteering for his campaign in Iowa, and met many other great and motivated people who saw what I saw in Joe Biden: a great speaker and an extremely knowledgeable leader who brought a pragmatic approach to politics and a plainspoken manner to the stump.  We also saw someone who could win in November.

Even though then end result was not what we were expecting, there were several positives for Biden that emerged during the primary.  He consistently received strong reviews from the press for his debate performances, and went a long way in minimizing his reputation as a “gaffe machine.” (After Obama’s “bitter” comment, Clinton’s “White Americans” argument, and McCain’s problems with the difference between Shia and Sunnis, it should be clear to everyone that all politicians make gaffes) He also showed off his superior command of foreign policy, consistently making stronger arguments than either Clinton or Obama; this was particularly evident when he successfully defended his vote in favor of funding the war – the only Democratic candidate to do so during the campaign.  Finally, even though he did not succeed in the caucuses, Biden drew crowds larger than any of the Republican candidates, and crowds that rivaled every Democratic candidate except for Obama.

Many of my friends have asked me about the possibility of Biden as VP for Obama.  Personally, in an ideal world, I don’t think he would take it.  Despite the role Dick Cheney has played in this presidency, most Vice Presidents wield little power, and Biden would not see the VP slot as a springboard to his own future run (he would be 74 when he took office in 2016).  He would much rather be Secretary of State, a position that commands a tremendous amount of influence in his primary area of expertise, foreign affairs.  Yet, if Obama quickly slips in the polls, and the question of whether he is ready to be commander-in-chief gains traction, Biden might join in order to save the ticket.

Should Obama pick Biden, or another well-healed politician in the Dick Cheney mold, minus the evil?  There are a couple of immediate benefits of picking someone like Biden.  First, it does assuage some of the fears people have that an Obama administration would be wet behind the ears, just as Cheney did with a potential Bush administration.  A Biden choice would also place a voice on the ticket that can be a formidable attack dog, slicing and dicing the Republicans while Obama remains above the fray.  Also, Obama has really struggled with older whites, and having someone on the ticket who can connect with this large bloc of voters that actually votes could help Obama make major inroads with this largely untapped demographic (or, he can just bribe the Hallmark Channel to run a Matlock mega-marathon on election day).

There are a number of problems picking someone like Biden.  One of them is not that he isn’t from a swing state, because the fact that the Vice President is from your state rarely is the difference for voters.  However, while a Biden would add experience to the ticket, it would also highlight Obama’s inexperience and remind people that McCain, not his running mate, is the expert on the other side.  A Biden choice also runs counter to Obama’s “change” message in two ways.  The first is that Biden has been in D.C. forever, and is entrenched in the Washington scene.  The other is that “change” is not just about the past, but also specifically about Bush, and picking Biden undercuts Obama’s message because it would be seen as strikingly similar to Bush’s choice in 2000.

As I have written before, Obama must maintain his message at the expense of other benefits a running mate could bring, so I see the difficulties of a Biden choice outweighing the benefits, at this point.  If we see experience become an increasing concern among voters, the case for someone like Biden will increase.  Over the next couple of months, we will see how this plays out.